QCOSTARICA – The last time we saw the dollar exchange below ¢600 colones we have to back to September 18, when one US dollar was ¢599.86 colones.
Today it is common to find it at the threshold of ¢620. Is this a new normal to which we must get used to?
Specialists can agree, as some consider that it is time to adapt and others place their hopes that it will recover, that drop below the ¢600.
“We need to have a very accelerated economy and interesting international connections so that many more dollars arrive than are demanded to return to those levels. The truth is I see it difficult,” says Daniel Suchar Zomer, University Professor and Finance Broadcast Analyst.
For others, it could return to levels below ¢600 to the extent that large amounts of external capital enter, through loans (as may be the agreement with the IMF), tourism, exports, or investment, as is the case of Karla Arguedas, manager of Advisory & Strategy of Prival Securities.
However, it is not expected that there will be an early return to the dollar below ¢600, because more than a permanent impact from the Covid-19 pandemic, the current level of the exchange rate obeys structural issues in the local market.
The first thing to understand is that when the exchange reaches the current figure, it is generally because it was at a competitive price and motivated demand to buy foreign currency, this is underpinned by the purchases made by the Central Bank in the Monex, be it to meet the needs of the non-financial public sector or to replenish reserve levels, Arguedas explained.
The fact that the most dynamic sector of the economy, such as the exporter, loses competitiveness in the event of a fall in the dollar also explains why the currency exchange remains at current levels, amid the crisis facing the economy.
The same happens with tourism, which would be affected by a downward movement in the exchange rate and would make it difficult to recover.
That is, even with the arrival of more foreign currency, the Central Bank would be managing the exchange rate so that it does not affect either sector.