Q24N (Nicaragua Investiga) The detention of Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores in Caracas, following a U.S. military incursion into Venezuela last weekend, raises questions about how the Sandinista regime may be affected in various ways, including economically.
During the government of the late Hugo Chávez, the regime of Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo was one of the main beneficiaries of Venezuelan petrodollars, which flooded Nicaragua’s economy and enriched the personal wealth of the dictators, their inner circle of Sandinista businesspeople, and even the children of the ruling couple.
But with Nicolás Maduro’s rise to power after Chávez’s death in April 2013, the fall in oil prices, and an internal crisis that ultimately led to his downfall due to U.S. intervention, relations between Maduro and the Ortega-Murillo duo became more ideological and political than economic.
Political and Ideological Support
Nicaragua remained and continues to be part of the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America (ALBA), but Petrocaribe stopped funding the regime that, in recent years, cemented its economic stability with exports to the United States. This is despite sharing with Chavismo widespread human rights violations and persecution of dissent, the difference being that, despite Sandinista rhetoric, they did not engage in a major conflict with the northern giant.
Nicaraguan economist Enrique Sáez, currently in exile, reports that, in economic terms, Nicaraguan exports to Venezuela in 2025 barely reached US$4 million, while those of the Chavista regime to Nicaragua did not exceed US$2 million, figures that date back to October of last year.
In the case of oil, the Sandinista regime’s dependence on crude oil is on the United States, its vital support in the economy, both in this matter and in other minerals such as gold and manufactured products that come from the Free Trade Agreement with Central America and the Dominican Republic (DR-CAFTA).
Nicaragua in Suspense Due to Its Affinity with Russia and China
However, it remains a concern that the regime’s political affinity with major U.S. rivals like China and Russia might not be affected by Maduro’s fall. The Office of the United States Trade Representative (UST) already signaled this, deciding after a year of investigations to impose gradual tariffs on the country. Although they went into effect on January 1, 2026, they will take full effect starting in 2027, beginning at 10% and rising to 15% in 2018, following the decision adopted last December.
Perhaps for this reason, Ortega and Murillo have been more restrained in their solidarity with Maduro’s Venezuela, although both called for his release, both in an internal statement to the country and during the extraordinary session of the UN Security Council held on Monday, January 5, where they also advocated for the freedom of the former Chavista leader’s wife, Cilia Flores.
For now, they have not yet endorsed the continuation of Chavismo with Delcy Rodríguez at the helm as interim president, nor have they commented on the oversight of Donald Trump and his administration over Caracas.
But in general terms, the economic impact of Maduro’s ouster is negligible, and for now, Ortega and Murillo can breathe easy, although anything can be expected from the Republican leader.
Translated and adapted from “Cuál será el impacto económico de la caída de Nicolás Maduro en Nicaragua” published at Nicaraguainvestiga.com. Read the original in Spanish here.