Q COSTARICA — If the outcome is any indication of what’s to come, the 2026 presidential elections could see the highest abstention rate in Costa Rican history.
Rónald Alfaro, director of the Center for Political Research and Studies (CIEP) at the University of Costa Rica (UCR), detailed the signs on the program “Café Política” on Channel 7.
“It is possible that there will be even more abstention or that the high level of four years ago will be maintained (…). The results we are observing point to a lack of interest from the electorate, low motivation, and that people are not discussing these political issues with their families. This combination of factors, plus the fact that we have political parties that are absent—completely absent—from the campaign, very weakened, and without financial resources, leads us to predict or suggest the possibility that abstention will be at least 40% or even much higher, as happened in 2022,” Alfaro said.
By November, 45% of Costa Ricans were undecided, while 39% said there wasn’t enough information available on the topic and 29% indicated they hadn’t had time to learn about it.
At the same time, 54% said they never or rarely talk about the issue. Furthermore, 45% of the undecided voters couldn’t identify a candidate they would never vote for.
“It’s very strange to put it this way, but this is an electoral process in which we haven’t had a campaign; that is, there hasn’t been a single issue that has been decisive and relevant in this discussion.”
Finally, Alfaro warned that one of the elements that distinguishes this campaign is the fact that the ruling party’s candidate, in this case Laura Fernández, is leading in the polls and doing so “with a strong lead.”
“The question remains whether she can consolidate that lead and win in the first round, but that’s a possibility, and in politics, even when things have a very high probability of happening, sometimes they don’t,” he stated.
Abstention Facilitates Victory
Furthermore, according to the polls, the fewer people who vote on February 1st, the easier it will be for Laura Fernández to win in the first round without needing a runoff.
To be declared the winner of the election, any candidate must obtain at least 40% of the valid votes.
That is why the electoral calculators are starting to add up and estimate projections based on the current level of undecided voters and the likely abstention rate.
In other words, reaching that percentage of valid votes is not the same if only 70%, 60%, or 50% of registered voters cast their ballots.
For example, in the hypothetical—but unrealistic—case that no one abstains from voting, Fernández, or any other candidate with sufficient support, would need to secure 1,492,715 votes to win without a runoff in April, given that the electoral roll totals 3,731,788.
However, if only 65% of registered voters cast their ballots, assuming a 35% abstention rate—a figure close to the historical average—the threshold drops considerably to just 970,264 valid votes.