Q COSTARICA — Between June 2022 and March of this year, individuals and businesses that receive their income in dollars saw their earnings decrease by almost 30% due to the appreciation of the colón against the dollar.
While it’s true that those with dollar-denominated debt, whether on loans or credit cards, are happy with lower monthly payments, the reality is that there is a high opportunity cost.
Thousands of jobs, the country’s competitiveness, the survival of tourism businesses, economic growth, tax collection, and even domestic producers are all affected by a weak dollar.
As if all that weren’t enough, Costa Rica would become a more expensive country in the medium term, impacting its overall competitiveness.
“When comparing the third quarter of 2024 with the same period in 2025, a loss of 22,000 tourism jobs is evident, primarily due to two factors: 1) increased operating costs due to the appreciation of the colón and a 1.8% decrease in tourist visits. Therefore, we are making an urgent appeal to the authorities regarding this situation,” said the Guanacaste Chamber of Tourism.
This concern has also been expressed by Shirley Calvo, executive director of the National Chamber of Tourism, and Flora Ayub, director of the Chamber of Hotels.
“The exchange rate is currently one of the factors most affecting the tourism sector, especially small and medium-sized businesses, due to the accumulated appreciation of the colón over the last three years. Although tourism companies have maintained high quality standards, the appreciation of the colón has reduced income in local currency and created a financial imbalance. Remember that expenses are in colones and income is in dollars,” said Calvo.
What will happen to the dollar in 2026?
In recent days, the dollar exchange rate has been below 500 colones at Monex and at banks.
This is mainly due to the start of the peak tourist season, but also to the influx of dollars by multinational companies to pay Christmas bonuses.
However, this doesn’t mean the currency will remain so cheap indefinitely.
Financial experts indicate that 2026 will bring a slight increase in the dollar, but it won’t be enough to bring the exchange rate to a kind of equilibrium point.
“The country’s international reserves have exceeded $16 billion, and interest rates remain high. Therefore, we could say that the dollar exchange rate shouldn’t experience any sharp movements in 2026,” stated Daniel Suchar, an economic analyst.
According to his analysis, the dollar will move within a relatively narrow range throughout the year.
“I think the dollar will be between 500, 520, and 525 colones throughout 2026,” he projected.
What to do?
Given this situation, the question arises: what can salaried workers and businesses do to protect themselves from a weak dollar?
In the case of salaried workers, several experts consulted by LA REPÚBLICA offered various tips focused on planning, since at this time there is little that can be done to recover liquidity.
The good news is that a budget and other tools would allow you to deal with the dollar in the future from a better position.
For example, if you have dollar-denominated debts from credit cards or loans, you could consider making advance payments.
Another piece of advice is to create an emergency fund to handle unexpected events like the current one, ensuring you have savings in colones to help you cope.
“People should make projections to identify seasonal patterns in currency behavior, always aiming to find the best time to buy them,” explained Luis Alvarado, an economic and financial analyst at Grupo Financiero ACOBO, who asserted that it’s clear the dollar tends to drop significantly during Christmas.
As for businesses, experts point out that they have more tools to deal with a low exchange rate.
The main one is currency hedging, which consists of financial instruments offered by banks that provide stability against fluctuations in the US dollar, while also eliminating uncertainty and allowing for sound annual planning and investment.
Essentially, currency hedging allows you to lock in the exchange rate from colones to dollars or other currencies like euros, yen, yuan, and pounds sterling for a predetermined period.
“Companies can consider purchasing currency hedges to lock in future prices for selling dollars. This protects profit margins and provides budget stability,” said Vidal Villalobos, financial advisor at Grupo Prival.
Another piece of advice is to review the various contracts companies have to index a portion to local inflation or the exchange rate, negotiate automatic adjustment clauses, and migrate some prices to colones if the client allows it.
Bad news
A cheap exchange rate does not benefit the country’s economy, even though debtors make lower payments on their loans.
These are the negative effects:
1. Loss of competitiveness in the export sector. By receiving income in dollars but paying salaries, electricity, taxes, and social security contributions in colones, exporters’ profit margins are squeezed, making it difficult to compete against countries with more devalued currencies like Colombia or Mexico.
2. Increased cost of tourism. Costa Rica becomes a more expensive destination for foreigners, generating a negative reputation. Tourists feel their money goes less in hotels, restaurants, and tours, which may motivate them to choose cheaper alternative destinations.
3. Less Employment: Multinational companies, exporters, and tourism businesses operate with budgets in dollars. If the dollar falls, they need to spend more dollars to cover salaries, so companies may freeze hiring, reduce working hours, or, in the worst-case scenario, carry out mass layoffs.
4. Disincentive to Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): Foreign companies could halt their expansion plans in the country or decide to locate in other jurisdictions where their dollars go further, affecting the creation of new, quality jobs.
5. Blow to Local Producers Compared to Imports: A cheap dollar makes imported products cheaper for the end consumer. While this sounds good at first, it is devastating for domestic producers.
6. Lower Taxes: If the two main drivers of the economy (exports and tourism) slow their growth due to decreased profitability, the economy as a whole stagnates, and the treasury collects less in taxes and invests less in social programs, security, and education, among other areas.
Stability in 2026
The dollar is expected to maintain exchange rate stability throughout 2026. Experts indicate a slight upward trend and, for the time being, rule out any abrupt changes.
The current situation, in which the dollar has been below 500 colones, is temporary and is associated with the Christmas season, the payment of bonuses, and the peak tourist season.
The official dollar exchange rate by the Central Bank for this Thursday, December 11, 2025, is: ¢495.29 for the buy and ¢501.76 for the sell.
Click here for the exchange rate at the banks and financial institutions this morning, as reported to the Banco Central de Costa Rica (BCCR) — Central Bank.