Q COSTARICA — The 2026 election campaign has mirrored the weather in Costa Rica in recent days, where it sometimes heats up, but the reality is that the cold hasn’t completely disappeared, according to the Center for Political Research and Studies (CIEP) at the University of Costa Rica (UCR).
In fact, 56.3% of voters consider the political contest to be cold, combining those who think it’s less intense than four years ago (26.8%) and those who feel there hasn’t been a campaign at all (29.5%).
On the other hand, in recent weeks, there has been an increase in political conversations within families or with friends (59.6%), but conflicts arising from this have only affected 13.2% of those interviewed.
The survey conducted in mid-January highlights that undecided voters dropped from 45% to 32%.
With these numbers, it is likely that voter abstention in Costa Rica will increase or, at least, remain the same as four years ago.
“This survey tells us that there is a possibility that Costa Rica will register even higher abstention than four years ago, when only 40% of registered voters cast their ballots; likewise, a percentage of voters feel that this election has barely registered,” said Rónald Alfaro, coordinator of the CIEP at the University of Costa Rica.
On the other hand, the ruling party — Partido Pueblo Soberano (PPSO) — candidate, Laura Fernández, is already close to a first-round victory, according to the CIEP (Center for Economic and Budgetary Research).
The ruling party candidate’s support among those who decided to vote rose from 30% to 40% between December and January.
This data is significant considering that to win in the first round, a candidate must garner at least 40% of the valid votes. Therefore, with the election just days away, Fernández’s biggest challenge will be getting her supporters to the polls.
This also means that the candidate has eight times more support than her closest rival, Álvaro Ramos of the Partido Liberación Nacional (PLN).
As for undecided voters, a 13-percentage-point decrease is reported, dropping from 45% in December to 32% in January.
The UCR surveyed voters about the presence or absence of conflicts or arguments with family members or friends for political reasons during this election campaign. These were the results (Figures in percentage, according to the UCR’s Center for Political and Economic Research):
- Increased conversation about politics among family or friends: 59.6% said yes, 40.4% said no
- Emergence of conflicts among family or friends for political reasons 13.2% said yes, 86.6% said no
The CIEP survey of the UCR was conducted through 1,006 interviews via cell phone, between Monday, January 12 and Thursday, January 15, after the debates of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE).