Q COSTARICA — If past performance is any indication, it seems the opposition will not have the 38 votes needed to remove President Rodrigo Chaves’s immunity this Tuesday afternoon, starting at 1:00 pm.
In fact, everything hinges on ‘no absences’ of legislators at today’s crucial session and, more importantly, on the nine Partido Unidad Social Cristiana (PUSC) legislators voting in favor of stripping the president of his immunity.
Rodrigo Chaves is being investigated for the alleged crime of political belligerence, which essentially involves using public funds or holding political-electoral demonstrations to favor a particular candidate or party.
If his immunity is lifted, the Tribunal Supremo de Elecciones (TSE)—Supreme Electoral Tribunal—can proceed with the 15 complaints it has filed on this matter and, if it finds him guilty, could remove him from office and bar him from holding public office for four years.
Immunity is a privilege granted to members of the highest branches of government, allowing them to exercise their duties without fear of prosecution.
Expectations
On September 22, five of the nine PUSC legislators voted against lifting immunity, leaving the opposition with only 34 of the 38 votes required. At that time, the issue was analyzed at the request of the Attorney General’s Office to proceed with a case of extortion, a corruption offense.
However, Leslye Bojorges, Melina Ajoy, Carlos Andrés Robles, María Marta Carballo, and Horacio Alvarado, all members of the PUSC, voted against the decision.
For today’s vote, the party has maintained a high level of secrecy, so its next steps are unknown.
Meanwhile, the Partido Liberacion Nacional (PLN), with the greatest majority, the Frente Amplio, the Partido Liberal Progresista party, and independent legislators are expected to vote to lift the immunity, totaling approximately 34 votes.
Finally, the six Partido Nueva República legislators have already indicated they will not vote in favor, and the support of government legislators, such as Pilar Cisneros, cannot be counted on either.
In total, the opposition holds 49 of the 57 legislative votes.
Chaves’ Warnings
Amid the unprecedented legislative process to determine whether or not to lift his immunity, President Rodrigo Chaves issued a message last week to the members of Congress who must decide his legal future before the parliamentary recess.
“There will be consequences, there will be condemnation for those who support the measure,” the president said.
What happens if the immunity isn’t lifted today?
In that scenario, the TSE will have to wait until Chaves loses his immunity on May 8, 2026, when his term ends, to continue the proceedings.
However, it’s not certain that this will happen on May 8, 2026, when Chaves hands over power.
This is because, in the event of a Laura Fernández win, the candidate Chaves is supporting and the root of the complaints filed against him, she could have the former president in her cabinet, and therefore, he would continue to enjoy immunity for up to four more years.