Q COSTARICA — Costa Rica’s economy is expected to face 2026 with a scenario of generalized stability, without significant shocks to the main macroeconomic indicators, despite the country being in an election year.
This is the prediction of analysts and others in the financial sector, who foresee orderly exchange rate behavior, a prudent monetary policy, contained inflation, and moderate economic growth.
Projections indicate that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will grow between 3.5% and 4%, a figure consistent with the country’s recent performance and with an international environment that, while challenging, does not appear adverse for Costa Rica.
Dollar with slight variations
On the other hand, one of the focuses of attention for businesses and consumers will be the foreign exchange market.
According to the experts, the dollar exchange will remain within a narrow range throughout next year, without episodes of high volatility.
Economic analyst Daniel Suchar maintains that current conditions support this expectation. Among these factors, the level of international reserves stands out, exceeding US$16 billion, as well as interest rates that remain at relatively high levels.
In this context, Suchar estimates that the US dollar will fluctuate between ¢500 and ¢525 colones throughout 2026, without any pressures pointing to abrupt movements in the short or medium term.
Monetary policy will remain cautious
Regarding interest rates, the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR)—defined by the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR) and a key benchmark for the financial system—will continue to be adjusted gradually.
Experts agree that any reduction will be cautious, largely conditioned by the decisions made by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). An uncertain international environment will likely lead the BCCR to prioritize prudence over rapid rate cuts.
According to Elizabeth Morales, deputy manager of Coopecaja, the Central Bank will maintain the conservative approach that has characterized its recent actions.
“Internal decisions will be closely aligned with what happens in the United States and with the need to preserve macroeconomic stability,” she notes.
Although the baseline outlook is positive, the final performance of the economy in 2026 will depend on several factors. Morales points to the performance of the main trading partners, the pace of public works projects, and the country’s ability to maintain a stable macroeconomic environment.
While some estimates place growth around 3%, there is room for a higher result if favorable regional and international conditions converge.
Another key element will be the behavior of the cost of living. Forecasts indicate that inflation will remain at low levels and even below the target range established by the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR) throughout 2026.
This scenario represents immediate relief for households and workers, protecting their purchasing power. However, it also presents challenges if low inflation is accompanied by an economic slowdown.
Financial advisor Vidal Villalobos, of Grupo Financiero Prival, rules out a stagflation scenario for now.
“There are no signs of stagnation with high inflation. The economy continues to grow, and unemployment is at historic lows,” he explains.
Villalobos adds that everything indicates that negative inflation could extend through 2026 and much of 2027, without implying, at least for now, a significant deterioration in the labor market.
Although February 2026 will mark a new election cycle, analysts believe that the impact on economic indicators will be limited. The strength of macroeconomic fundamentals and the continuity of economic policy would reduce the risk of shocks associated with the political cycle.