Q COSTARICA — Costa Rica’s economy is projected to maintain a growth trajectory through 2026, albeit at a more moderate pace than that observed in 2025, reflecting the normalization of GDP growth components toward their long-term values.
This is according to the most recent Economic Outlook Report 2026–2027 from the Mercado de Valores Financial Group, which projects GDP growth of 3.6% for 2026, following an estimated 4.2% growth in 2025.
The report indicates that this performance would be supported by continued, albeit more moderate, domestic demand, as well as by private investment that could benefit from less restrictive financial conditions. The entity’s initial projection for 2027 is 3.9%.
“After a year of stronger-than-expected growth, the economy is entering a phase of deceleration, but this is not an abrupt loss of momentum; rather, it is an adjustment toward growth rates consistent with its long-term values,” explained Karol Fernández, Junior Investment Analyst at Grupo Financiero Mercado de Valores.
Regarding prices, the report projects that inflation will remain contained for much of 2026, with a gradual return to positive territory in the second half of the year. However, the indicator is still expected to close 2026 below the Central Bank of Costa Rica’s target, with inflation estimated at around 1.4%, and will not approach the lower end of the BCCR’s target (3% ± 1 percentage point) until the end of 2027. This behavior will be influenced by external factors, such as changes in commodity prices and exchange rate fluctuations.
Regarding the foreign exchange market, the Stock Exchange anticipates that the exchange rate will continue to exhibit episodes of volatility throughout 2026, albeit within narrow ranges. Upward pressures are expected during the third quarter, followed by an appreciation toward the end of the year, in line with seasonal market patterns and the high inflow of foreign currency into the country. Under this scenario, the exchange rate would be in a range close to ¢505 to ¢515 per dollar by the end of 2026.
In the fiscal arena, the report indicates that the debt-to-GDP ratio will remain below 60% during 2026 and 2027, and the economy will operate under a more flexible fiscal rule, which would allow for greater growth in public spending, in a context where tax revenues continue to grow at a rate lower than economic activity.
“The stability achieved in recent years does not eliminate risks. In a year marked by a change of government and the start of the electoral cycle, maintaining fiscal discipline and clarity in economic policy will be fundamental to preserving market confidence,” Fernández added.
The analysis also identifies significant risks to economic performance, including a potential slowdown in exports from the special regime, persistent insecurity, exchange rate volatility, and the social and political tensions inherent in an election year.
International Context Could Have an Impact
Internationally, uncertainty associated with geopolitical conflicts, adjustments in trade policy, and monetary policy decisions in the United States and other advanced economies will continue to influence the global financial environment.
The report indicates that the international economic environment will remain marked by high uncertainty during 2026 and 2027. In the United States, while inflation has shown signs of stabilization, it remains high. Risks associated with trade policy, geopolitical tensions, and labor market trends also persist. In this context, the US Federal Reserve (FED) would maintain a cautious stance, with an interest rate cut only if current fundamentals remain unchanged.