Q24N (Confidencial) The elimination of visa-free entry for Cubans to Nicaragua, which had been in effect since November 2021, could not have been a “unilateral” action by the regime of Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo, but rather a measure “consulted” with Havana, which simultaneously sends a “message to the United States” amid accusations that the country has served as a “springboard” for irregular migration, analysts explained to CONFIDENCIAL.
Nicaraguan jurist and opposition figure Juan Diego Barberena believes that the measure, adopted on February 8, 2026, is more a result of a foreign policy strategy than an immediate response to the Ortega regime’s migration situation.
“This is a two-pronged move; that is, it was discussed with the Cubans. The objective is not to prevent Cubans from staying in Nicaragua, but to send a message to the United States,” he explained.
The Ortega regime, he added, is trying to show a willingness to cooperate on an issue as sensitive for Washington as migration.
Cuban political scientist and historian Armando Chaguaceda agrees that the decision in Managua could not have been made “without consulting Havana,” especially given the role Nicaragua had assumed after the social protests of July 2021 in Cuba.
“It is not a unilateral action, although it puts Cuba in a more complicated situation (…) Nicaragua had been, through negotiation and consensus between the two dictatorships, an escape valve for the young Cuban population that took to the streets to protest,” said Chaguaceda, who is also a researcher at the think tank Government and Political Analysis (GAPAC).
On November 22, 2021, Nicaragua decided to authorize entry into the country for Cubans without a visa. The measure allowed a wave of Cuban migration, with many using Nicaraguan territory as a springboard to the United States.
The decision, according to the official discourse, was a “humanitarian measure.” In 2015, Nicaragua had closed its border to hundreds of Cuban migrants seeking to enter from Costa Rica on their way to the United States, and denounced the neighboring country for triggering what it called a “humanitarian crisis” in the region.
Consulted Visa Requirement Amid Political Tension
The end of visa-free travel comes amid escalating tensions between Cuba and the Donald Trump administration, and a month after the capture of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela.
Barberena emphasized that the new “consulted visa” system does not equate to a real closure of the route. The actual impact of the measure will depend on how the requirement is applied and whether applications end up being approved across the board.
“We will have to see to what extent this is a maneuver to actually prevent the free movement of Cubans in Nicaragua… it is possible that every Cuban who applies for a visa will be granted one,” Barberena warned.
Visa applications will be processed by the Ministry of the Interior via email at solicitudes@mint.gob.ni and are free of charge.
According to lawyer and former political prisoner Róger Reyes, Ortega and Murillo “are not interested in the migration crisis,” but rather believe that with their strategy they “will be able to continue their dictatorship without any pressure.”
“They are trying to improve their image, they want to curry favor with the Trump administration (…) Ortega is reaching the point of weighing his allies, his economic benefits, and the continuation of his dictatorship without any problems with the United States,” Reyes stated.
The former political prisoner pointed out that the Nicaraguan regime decided to “isolate pressure and sanctions” from the United States, and Ortega and Murillo have chosen “to be in a better position with Trump than with any other ally.”
Opacity Surrounding Migration Data in Nicaragua
Despite the visa being free, the decision poses an obstacle for Cubans who, for the past four years, have seen Nicaragua as an escape route on their journey to the United States. The month after the measure took effect, the country registered the arrival of 6,178 Cubans, according to data from the Immigration and Foreign Affairs Office. However, since then, official figures have disappeared.
The number of Cubans who passed through the country is unknown because the Ortega regime keeps public information under wraps, and this opacity allows it to operate politically without accountability, analysts say.
During this period, however, 245,210 Cubans were detected in an irregular situation in Honduras. At least 98,888 of them entered Honduras irregularly from Nicaragua by land, confirming the country’s role as one of the main departure points for the migration route to the United States.
The number of encounters between Cuban migrants at the U.S. border, however, decreased dramatically in 2025 after Trump’s return to the presidency. According to data published by U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP), the number of encounters between Cubans at the U.S. southern border in recent years was as follows:
- 2023: 142,352
- 2024: 150,995
- 2025: 31,944
- 2026: 303
According to Chaguaceda, Nicaragua played a functional role for the Cuban regime by facilitating a relatively “orderly” departure amidst a profound social crisis.
Chaguaceda added that this opening also generated economic benefits for sectors close to power. “This orderly departure became a business for both sides, with airlines, hotels, and companies linked to the regimes,” he explained.
Cubans are also moving south.
The partial closure of this route, the Cuban historian warned, does not eliminate migration, but rather transforms it. “When people need to leave, they leave one way or another… This increases all costs, and those who can afford to travel will leave; the poor will not be able to travel,” Chaguaceda stated.
Cuban migration flows, however, are not directed exclusively north. A portion of this migration also moves south, using countries like Nicaragua and Costa Rica as transit points or destinations.
Between 2022 and 2024, Costa Rica’s General Directorate of Migration and Foreigners registered the entry of 6,330 Cubans, 252 of whom entered through the Peñas Blancas and Las Tablillas land borders. At least 5,518 filed asylum applications.
In 2025, Uruguay also received Cuban migrants and, in that year alone, issued 13,852 identity documents to Cubans for the first time.
“The Cubans who were leaving were mainly heading to the United States, but after the US measures, many stayed in Mexico, and there is also a huge community in other countries (…). We are talking about an island with a large impoverished population that has lost approximately one-sixth of its population,” Chaguaceda pointed out. Cuba Needs That Migration
Lawyer and human rights advocate Laritza Diversent, director of the Cubalex Legal Advice Center, agreed that Ortega and Murillo’s “visa-free” policy for Cubans, established in 2021, helped the Cuban regime “release the pressure after the July 11 protests.”
Diversent noted that migration plays a structural role in the island’s economic model. “The Cuban economy is extractive. It needs those people who leave, who work abroad and send money to their families in Cuba, who produce nothing,” she pointed out, emphasizing the growing dependence on remittances for the survival of thousands of households.
Cubalex has also documented cases of arbitrary actions by Nicaraguan authorities even before this change.
“We have documented cases of people who were denied entry to Nicaragua without any reason, turned back, and lost everything,” Diversent stated, referring to Cubans who had already sold their belongings or bought plane tickets.
According to analysts consulted by CONFIDENCIAL, the Ortega-Murillo regime’s decision does not address the root causes of Cuban migration.
Is this measure coming only after the business has dried up?
On February 13, 2026, the Ortega-Murillo regime also added to the list of 128 countries whose citizens need a visa to enter Nicaragua the group of non-continental nations that took advantage of visa exemptions and flexible immigration policies—which turned Nicaragua into a migration springboard—to migrate irregularly to the United States.
Among the countries included are Guinea, Senegal, Mauritania, Angola, Egypt, Georgia, and Kyrgyzstan, whose citizens could previously fly to Nicaragua and apply for a tourist visa upon arrival.
This group of seven countries, mostly in Africa, is among the 20 nationalities of migrants who irregularly crossed into Honduras via the land border with Nicaragua, according to CONFIDENCIAL’s monitoring of statistics from the Honduran National Migration Institute.
This measure comes as US sanctions have intensified and charter flights from these countries have ceased.
Following the exposure of the migrant smuggling operation, the United States began sanctioning the businesspeople and companies that facilitated irregular migration. In January 2025, the US State Department stated that it had already closed more than 70 charter flight routes transporting migrants, including those connecting Nicaragua with Cuba and Libya.
Translated and adapted from the article “Eliminar libre visado para cubanos no garantiza fin de “trampolín migratorio” desde Nicaragua” published at Confidencial.digital