Q COSTARICA — The dollar exchange rate is expected to remain stable, in the range of ¢500 to ¢510 colones, for the remainder of this year.
In fact, there’s a good chance it might even dip a bit due to a steady stream of foreign currency coming from multinational companies and the boost from the high tourist season.
These insights come from Grupo Financiero Mercado de Valores, who reviewed the economic outlook as the year winds down.
While there have been occasional blips causing the exchange rate to wobble, the market has held its ground. No signs of sustained upward pressure have shown up in 2025.
Mauricio Moya, Investment Leader at the group, put it plainly: “We expect the exchange rate to stay mostly stable, with some downward movement, fueled by a stronger inflow of dollars into the economy. Sure, short-term ups and downs may happen in the coming months, but our main forecast keeps it between ¢500 and ¢510 by year-end.”
On the monetary policy front, the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BBCR) is likely to keep things cautious. Still, there might be room for one more cut in the benchmark Monetary Policy Rate before the year-end.
Low inflation and little pressure from demand are setting the stage for easier financial conditions as 2026 approaches.
Inflation is on track to close at about -0.8% this year. By 2026, it should gradually climb to around 1.8%, which remains well under the Central Bank’s target range of 3%, allowing for a bit of wiggle room either way.
The slide in international fuel prices and cheaper imported goods keep nudging inflation downward.
“Inflation remains influenced by global price trends and the stable, low exchange rate, which helps keep import costs down. This lets monetary policy adjust slowly and steadily, creating steadier financial conditions for families and businesses next year,” Moya added.
Looking at the bigger picture, economic growth is expected to hover near 4% over 2025 and 2026, mostly driven by exports.
Meanwhile, local spending has cooled off somewhat—a trend that might stick around for a bit longer as disposable income growth slows.
From a fiscal standpoint, the government’s primary balance should sit around 1.3% of GDP. The debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to stay just under 60%, though it remains vulnerable to shifts in the exchange rate because a big chunk of that debt is in foreign currency.
There are risks on both sides. International events that push up borrowing costs or hit demand abroad could shake things up. On the flipside, stable exchange rates, softer commodity prices, and persistent low inflation could pull projections lower than expected.