Q COSTARICA — With the presidential elections just days away, a couple of questions are capturing the attention of leaders, parties, presidential candidates, and Costa Ricans in general.
Can Laura Fernández, of the Pueblo Soberano party (PPSO), win in the first round? And if not, which opposition candidate would have the best chance of defeating Chavismo?
Álvaro Ramos, of the Partido Liberaciòn Nacional (PLN); Fabricio Alvarado, of Nueva República; Claudia Dobles, of the Coalición Agenda Ciudadana; Ariel Robles, of the Frente Amplio; Juan Carlos Hidalgo, of Partido Unidad Social Cristiana (PUSC); and Eliécer Feinzaig, of the Paritdo Liberal Progresista (PLP), all point out that none of them could win in February with the current poll numbers.
They also acknowledge that their pro-government rival, Laura Fernández, will have a guaranteed spot in the April runoff. Therefore, their strategy in the final stretch of the campaign is to motivate Costa Ricans to vote, combat abstention, and prevent Fernández from reaching the 40% of valid votes needed to win outright without a runoff.
But who has the best chance of making it to the second round in April? And who would have the best opportunity to unite the opposition against Chavismo?
At this point, polls haven’t indicated a runoff scenario, and they still show voter indecision ranging from 29% to 45%, making the answers to these two questions complex.
I would never vote for…
In that sense, the best approach to the issue, practically two weeks before the elections, is to evaluate what Costa Ricans think when asked: Who would you never vote for?
The firms Demoscopía and Opol Consultores, along with the CIEP at the University of Costa Rica (UCR), have been measuring this phenomenon since December of last year, yielding more or less similar data.
For example, all three polls place Álvaro Ramos as the second most popular candidate, with a maximum of 11.3% support, according to Demoscopía. The problem for him is that he is also the opposition candidate with the highest disapproval rating nationwide.
22% told Demoscopía that they would never vote for him; 30% told the UCR the same, and Opol Consultores places that percentage at 22%.
In other words, the opposition candidate with the most support is, in turn, the one who generates the least electoral sympathy at the national level.
Regardless, Ramos believes the electoral race is between Fernández and himself.
“One of us will be the next president of Costa Rica,” says Ramos, who is calling on Costa Ricans to go out and vote.
The politician denies that the PLN is a significant obstacle to his electoral aspirations and believes that in a second round, the leadership of the two candidates will be the deciding factor.
Less rejection, but less initial support
From there, the other presidential candidates who currently poll above 1% in the three surveys mentioned have lower rejection rates than Ramos.
However, it is also true that they are currently receiving less electoral support.
For example, Claudia Dobles has a voting intention that fluctuates between 3% and 4%, and a voter disapproval rating that varies between 3.6% and 4.3%.
The former first lady and prominent figure in the PAC party remains optimistic and proclaims herself the opposition’s best candidate to challenge the ruling party.
“There are candidates with higher disapproval ratings; this means that, in our case, there’s a lower ceiling for consolidating more votes in the second round,” Dobles states.
Juan Carlos Hidalgo and Eliécer Feinzaig make a similar argument.
Feinzaig, who was also a presidential candidate in 2022, points out that in the last two weeks of the campaign, an opposition candidate needs to gain momentum through the debates, thereby consolidating anti-Chávez sentiment.
The politician adds that voters are already thinking about various scenarios for the second round, for example, Laura versus the PLN or Laura versus the PAC, while highlighting how a candidacy like his would be more viable to unite voters opposed to the government.
Second round of voting
A second round of voting is triggered when no candidate obtains 40% of the valid votes cast. The law stipulates that it will be held two months after the first round of voting; in 2026, it would be on Sunday, April 5.
These are the rules:
- According to the Political Constitution of Costa Rica, to be declared president in the first round, a candidate must obtain at least 40% of the valid votes cast. If no candidate reaches this percentage, a second round is held.
- In the second round, only the two presidential candidates who received the most votes in the first election participate. In this runoff, the rule is simpler: the candidate who obtains the most votes will be declared president, regardless of the percentage. The 40% threshold does not apply in this instance.
- In the event of an absolute tie in the number of votes in the second round of elections, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) must call for a new election between the same two candidates.
Election runoffs were never necessary in Costa Rica until the beginning of the century. Since then, Costa Ricans have gone to an election runoff four times (winner in bold):
- 2022 Rodrigo Chaves Robles vs José María Figueres Olsen
- 2018 Carlos Alvarado vs Fabricio Alvarado
- 2014 Luis Guillermo Solís vs Johnny Araya
- 2002 Abel Pacheco vs Rolando Araya.