Q COSTARICA — The president of the Banco Central de Costa Rica (BCCR) — Costa Rica’s Central Bank, Róger Madrigal, warned that the country could face an “inflationary shock” in the coming months stemming from the growing geopolitical tension between the United States, Iran, and Israel.
According to Madrigal, although the effects are not yet being felt directly in consumers’ wallets, they are inevitable in the short term.
“We will have news very soon. We haven’t felt it in our wallets yet, but there will be an adjustment in the prices of a large number of goods and services, which will accelerate inflation. We will very likely enter the tolerance range sooner than expected,” he stated.
Madrigal added that, while the country has certain macroeconomic conditions to mitigate the impact, these would not be sufficient to completely contain the phenomenon.
“In Costa Rica, we have the conditions to accommodate, I don’t know if all, but part of the inflationary shock that is coming,” he indicated.
This statement comes in an international context marked by uncertainty. The armed conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran not only threatens to drag on, but is already having repercussions on global markets. Among the main effects are increased maritime transport costs, higher prices for imported goods, and a rise in the price of petroleum products, especially fuels.
Added to this is the trade policy pursued by US President Donald Trump, who has insisted on imposing tariffs on foreign products, which puts further pressure on international prices.
In this scenario, analysts agree that Costa Rica, as an open economy dependent on imports, could be more severely affected by the increased cost of key inputs, passing these costs on to the end consumer.
Monetary authorities, for their part, will have to evaluate possible adjustments to economic policy to contain inflation and prevent a decline in household purchasing power, amidst an increasingly volatile global environment.