RICO’s Q — Tensions surge as the diplomatic relationship between Nicaragua and Spain has sharply deteriorated in recent weeks, plunging into a full-blown crisis that threatens to upend years of historical ties.
At the heart of the confrontation lies a series of escalating disputes over political accusations, human rights concerns, and alleged interference in domestic affairs.
The latest flare-up began when the regime of Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo expelled Spain’s ambassador, Sergio Farré, only weeks after having presented his credentials in Nicaragua, accusing Madrid of meddling in its internal politics and supporting opposition groups.
The regime expelled not only the Spanish ambassador to the country and his second-in-command, Miguel Mahiques Núñez, who had to leave Managua last Sunday, January 25, by order of the dictatorial duo.
Spain, in turn, responded by declaring Nicaragua’s ambassador persona non grata, signaling a severe breakdown in diplomatic communications. This tit-for-tat escalation has rattled diplomats and analysts alike, who warn of a prolonged standoff with wide-reaching consequences.
Spain has been openly critical of Nicaragua’s recent crackdown on dissent, notably targeting opposition leaders, journalists, and civil society activists. The Spanish government has condemned what it calls a systematic erosion of democratic freedoms and human rights abuses under President Daniel Ortega’s administration. Spain’s vocal stance, coupled with its calls for international pressure on Managua, has been met with fierce retaliation.
For the Ortega-Murillo regime, these denunciations are viewed as an affront to national sovereignty and an attempt to undermine its government, accusing Spain of hypocrisy and neo-colonial attitudes, framing the conflict as a struggle against foreign interference. They insist that their actions are necessary for national security and stability, dismissing criticisms as politically motivated attacks.
However, behind the regime’s actions may be something closer to home for them.
Speculation suggests the rift seems to stem from Spain’s refusal to grant the Ortega-Murillo family refuge, as the United States continues to pressure the regime to give up its power.
Earlier this month, when it seemed likely that the U.S. might do a “Maduro” on Daniel Ortega and his wife and Rosario Murillo, fearing betrayal from within, the dictatorial duo may have sought refuge.
Another plausible and tense theory is the fate of former economic advisor Bayardo Arce, who was swiftly convicted on Tuesday, with little to no public details of the proceedings.
The issue of the co-presidency is interesting, especially since they haven’t yet named a vice president.
Laureano is not in the line of succession
If Ortega were to die today, or if something were to happen to Rosario Murillo, Gustavo Porras would be next in line.
Without Ortega in power, the entire system becomes destabilized. The absence of Ortega, Rosario Murillo, and even Laureano doesn’t guarantee a democratic transition in Nicaragua.
This will bring, however, more uncertainty but also greater opportunities for change. Still, all the necessary preparations must be made to ensure a democratic transition can happen in Nicaragua.
It will generate, however, more uncertainty and better possibilities for change, but all the necessary work must be done to be prepared for that moment, so that a democratic transition can take place in Nicaragua.
What is clear, after Venezuela, Ortega and Murillo now know they can be removed.
In a conversation on the program “Esta Semana”, which is broadcast on CONFIDENCIAL’s YouTube channel due to television censorship in Nicaragua, historian Dora María Téllez and political scientist Douglas Castro analyzed the dilemmas of the dictatorship and the opposition in light of the Venezuelan crisis and Donald Trump’s imperial intervention.
“Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo, for the first time, are convinced that this animosity (with the United States) in the case of Venezuela has translated into action. Maduro said, ‘Come and get me out, let them come and get me out,’ and they came and got him out. Daniel Ortega has said the same thing, they’ve all said it, believing that it would never happen. For the first time, now the Ortega-Murillo family is certain that it can happen, and that changes everything, even the issue of succession,” says Téllez, a former Sandinista guerrilla and former prisoner of conscience.
“Rosario Murillo is Daniel Ortega’s successor, and Ortega is politically dead. She has already placed all her unconditional operatives in positions of power. Why don’t they appoint a vice president? Because Rosario Murillo doesn’t want to be overshadowed; she wants to remain Ortega’s undisputed successor. No one should think that a vice president is going to become co-president alongside her. Her risk is that if something happens—any unforeseen event, like a heart attack for both of them—they haven’t appointed anyone to the vice presidency, and that role falls to Gustavo Porras,” Téllez warned.
The “Esta Semana” is hosted by Carlos Chamorro, founder and editor of Confidencial, and son of former President of Nicaragua, Violeta Barrios de Chamorro, who has been in exile in Costa Rica since January 2019.