Q COSTA RICA — The advance of the meteorological drought on the Pacific slope has intensified in recent weeks, according to the national weather service, the Instituto Meteorológico Nacional (IMN), now also encompassing the Central Valley and the Northwest Zone.
The most recent update of the climate forecast, valid until February 2027, suggests that this phenomenon could persist or even worsen in the coming months.
Regarding the El Niño phenomenon, the IMN indicates that the intensity observed through August is strong and that there is a possibility that, between September and November, it will reach a very strong phase.
According to Karina Hernández, a climatology specialist at the IMN, this technical classification refers to the level of warming of the surface waters of the equatorial Pacific, which would exceed two degrees Celsius above the average.
Hernández indicated that current levels even exceed those of the 2015 event, although the trend has stabilized in the last two months.
The period with the highest probability of an increase in intensity would be the last quarter of the year, since historically El Niño tends to reach its peak during that time.
Regarding rainfall, the forecast indicates that the North Pacific could end August with up to 80% less precipitation. Estimated deficits for the Central Pacific, South Pacific, and Central Valley are around 60%, while in the Northwest Zone they are approaching 40%.
Hernández pointed out that El Niño usually favors this contrast between a drier Pacific and a rainier Caribbean
Regarding temperatures, the increase, which was previously projected mainly for the North Pacific, now extends to the entire Pacific slope, the Central Valley, and the Northwest Zone, with ranges of between 1.5°C and 2°C above average. For the Caribbean and the Northeast Zone, the estimated increase is more moderate, between 0.5°C and 1°C.
This scenario has led to new maximum temperature records.