Q COSTARICA — The potential arrival of El Niño could bring a drier and hotter scenario to Costa Rica in the coming months.
This could include a reduction of up to 50% in rainfall in Guanacaste, temperature increases in various regions of the country, and greater pressure on resources such as water and energy, warned the School of Geographic Sciences at the Universidad Nacional (UNA).
Projections analyzed by international meteorological organizations and national authorities indicate that the phenomenon could solidify during the second half of 2026 and even extend into early 2027, in a context marked by global warming.
Ricardo Orozco, a climatologist at the UNA’s School of Geographic Sciences, noted that current scenarios show conditions similar to those historically observed during this phenomenon.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) estimates an 80% probability of El Niño developing between June and August 2026, a percentage that would exceed 90% by the end of the year.
Furthermore, the most recent projections suggest that it could reach a strong or very strong intensity between November 2026 and January 2027.
If this scenario is confirmed, the North Pacific would be the most affected region, with Guanacaste potentially receiving up to 50% less rainfall than normal during the June-August quarter, according to estimates from the national weather service, the Instituto Meteorológico Nacional de Costa Rica (IMN).
The Central Pacific and the Central Valley would experience reductions of around 40%, while the South Pacific would have about 35% less precipitation.
In contrast, the Caribbean and Northern regions could receive between 10% and 15% more rain than average.
The decrease in rainfall would also be accompanied by an increase in temperatures.
Guanacaste could register increases of up to two degrees Celsius above normal values, while other regions would experience increases of between one and 1.3 degrees.
This scenario would have direct consequences on water availability, agricultural production, public health, and electricity generation.
“El Niño is a natural phenomenon. The difference now is that we are in a context of global warming,” Orozco explained.
The researcher recalled that previous events caused significant reductions in rainfall in Guanacaste and forced the declaration of drought emergencies in several areas of the Pacific coast.
This highlights the need to strengthen institutional and community preparedness for a possible new episode of the phenomenon.