Q COSTA RICA —Fertility in Costa Rica is projected to reach 1.12 children per woman in 2026, down from the previously forecast 1.20. This estimate comes from the Central American Population Center at the University of Costa Rica (UCR).
The Civil Registry recorded 48,414 births in 2025—the lowest number since 2016. This figure is part of a downward trend that is also driving a decline in school enrollment.
The decision to have children is linked to economic, social, and family factors. Changes helping to explain this decline include the postponement of the first birth, a preference for smaller households, and the choice to remain child-free.
Arodys Robles, a researcher at the Central American Population Center, said that people weigh material and social conditions before deciding to expand their families. Factors such as childcare options, the division of household chores, working conditions, and the resources needed to raise children all play a role in this assessment.
“In general, it comes down to an assessment of the conditions under which children will be born and raised,” Robles stated. The researcher explained that the context in which child-rearing takes place influences both the decision to have children and the timing of that decision.
A decline in fertility does not necessarily mean that women want fewer children in every case.
Some do not reach their desired family size due to the prevailing economic and social conditions in their environment, the specialist noted.
“There are also women who cannot have the children they want because current economic and social conditions do not allow it,” Robles noted to the media outlet. The situation involves both personal preferences and the practical ability to support child-rearing.
The rate of the decline in births could alter demographic projections.
Jorge Barquero, also a researcher at the UCR, stated that the decline recorded in 2025 had been anticipated by specialists. The drop in births was not unexpected, although the speed at which it is occurring might necessitate a revision of calculations prepared in conjunction with the Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos (INEC)—National Institute of Statistics and Census.
“We are not surprised that 2025 shows a decrease in the number of births. This is something we already knew about and had foreseen,” Barquero explained to the publication. Demographic projections may require adjustments if the trend continues at a pace different from the one assumed when they were originally drafted.
Gilbert Brenes, a researcher at the same institution, warned that international experience shows it is difficult to recover the fertility levels of previous decades once indicators fall to very low values. The specialist linked this scenario to shifts in social values, the labor market, and the conditions under which women make decisions regarding motherhood.
“Even if there are policies promoting higher birth rates, they might do little to reverse or impact the trend observed over the last few decades,” Brenes said. His argument suggests that measures aimed at boosting birth rates would have limited effects in the face of long-term social and economic transformations.
The slowdown in fertility is also reflected in the country’s population growth. Costa Rica reached a population of four million in 2001 and hit five million in 2018—an increase that took 17 years.
Projections by the INEC place the milestone of six million inhabitants around 2045. This next increase of one million people would take 27 years from the time the country reached the five-million mark.