Wednesday 5 October 2022

Last minute polls confirm Bolsonaro will be Brazil’s next elected president

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05 October 2022 - At The Banks - BCCR

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The ultra right candidate Jair Bolsonaro continued ahead of Fernando Haddad in the runoff for the Brazilian presidency scheduled to take place this Sunday, 28 October. According to the latest public opinion poll, released late Saturday, the ex Army captain and paratrooper had a 54% of valid votes support while the Workers Party hopeful stood at 46%, that is an eight points difference.

The ex Army captain Jair Bolsonaro should be the next Brazilian president taking office on January first 2019, according to last minute opinion polls

The Ibope poll which was made public Saturday 19:00 Sao Paulo time has a plus/minus two percentage points error. Valid votes exclude those blank, spoilt ballots or undecided or uncommitted voters.

The latest result, shows the mid week tendency which had Bolsonaro’s support slightly but steadily contracting while that of Haddad gaining. In effect the previous Ibope poll had Bolsonaro with 57% support and 43% for the ex mayor of Sao Paulo City.

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Taking into account the whole universe of votes (voting is mandatory in Brazil), Bolsonaro’s support also tends to contract. Ibope estimates it has dropped from 50% to 47%, while Haddad has steadily climbed from 37% to 41%. Among the undecided the margin of error was more volatile closer to 3% than to 2%.

As to rejection for both candidates, the latest Ibope poll also shows some changes. Among those interviewed 39% said that under no circumstances would they vote for Bolsonaro, which represents a slight drop from the previous poll, when it stood at 40%. However in the case of Haddad the change was greater, rejection climbed from 41% to 44%.

A second last minute poll, Datafolha, with interviews collected between Friday and early Saturday, a few hours ahead of Sunday ballot day showed Bolsonaro with 55% support and Haddad 45%, with the same converging tendency.

In effect the distance between the two candidates shrank in the last two weeks, when it stood at 18 points. Considering the whole universe of votes, 8% will vote blank or spoilt while 5% remain undecided.

The Datafolha poll was contracted by the O’Globo network and Folha de Sao Paulo and interviewed 18.060 people, between Friday and Saturday with a margin error of two percentage points.

Datafolha also reflected similar degrees or rejection, 45% for Bolsonaro and 52% for Haddad, with diverging tendency.

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With the electronic vote, the name of the next Brazilian president should be known no further than 20:00 hours Sao Paulo.

Source: MercoPress

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Reports by QCR staff

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