Q COSTARICA — A Game of Numbers. It was relatively quiet on Monday. There were no resignations, no raids, no institutional fires, and no conferences with fresh insults to jot down. It was a “relaxed” day, even in the Assembly, so we can calmly delve into a couple of reports that came out yesterday.
This Monday, two separate views coincided: one hard (the Idespo survey from the UNA) and the other soft (the digital listening study by U Latina with Kantar IBOPE). In contrast, they provide ample material for a lively conversation.
Let’s see, the Idespo documents a very similar picture to the one CIEP shared with us last week. In short, only Laura Fernández—who is already a distant leader—is managing to grow significantly. Between the October and November studies, she gained 4.7 points and climbed to a very substantial 32.8%.
Two important data points: undecided voters decreased by only 8.5 points, settling at 43.9%, while the combined growth of Ramos, Dobles, and Robles totals 4.1 points—less than the growth Fernández registered on her own.
This shouldn’t necessarily be interpreted as a pattern that will continue, but it does clarify two points. First, anyone who thought Laura had reached her peak was very wrong. Second, the conversation is no longer limited to “Who will face Laura in the runoff?” It now also includes another question: “Will Laura win in the first round?”
The summary is simple: the hard polls favor Laura, choke the opposition, and leave the country staring at the undecided voters like someone staring into a dark room, unwilling to turn on the light.
Any glimmer of hope for the other 19 presidential hopefuls? The overall outlook is clearly bleak, but if anyone showed signs of life yesterday, it was Claudia Dobles, who jumped from 2.3% to 5.2%.
Dobles is the fastest-growing candidate after Laura, and now she can start crunching numbers to capitalize on the apparent stalemate in Ramos’s campaign and challenge him for second place in January. It’s just a matter of maintaining this trend, and she’ll steal the show. Her new problem, clearly, is what’s already been said: Fernández aims to resolve this in a single round.
So far, everything is relatively normal for a lackluster campaign. So lackluster, in fact, that Kantar IBOPE detailed in its new report that 7 out of every 10 comments made on social media this quarter were about President Chávez. That is to say, while in any other campaign the outgoing president’s image fades significantly, in this case, the opposite has happened: he’s being talked about more than all the other candidates combined.
Interesting fact: the controversy surrounding the frequency auction generated a spike in negative comments about the president, reaching 46.2% adverse opinions. That’s how strong the “Sinfonola Effect” was. However, as is obvious, the incident did nothing to help Laura’s campaign.
In any case, the cold, hard data speaks for itself: in three and a half years in office, negative comments about Chávez on social media only outnumbered positive ones on five occasions. That’s how exceptional his support has been, and it remains just as solid to this day. He has to make a huge blunder, like condemning Sinfonola to death, for the needle to move even slightly against him. And he quickly readjusts.
In any case, as I always say, we must take each study for what it is. If it’s imperative to read polls with insight and nuance, then it’s even more crucial to understand surveys like the one by Kantar IBOPE. Without going too far afield, the presidential candidate for Pueblo Soberano is the most mentioned figure on social media (173,389 mentions) but also the most criticized: 56.8% negative comments (22.5% positive and 20.8% neutral).
The complaints are coming from all sides: her absence from debates, the proposal to sell the Central Reserve Bank (BCR), the Supreme Electoral Tribunal’s rejection of her appeal, the phrase about the “trigger spike” in homicides… A collection of anecdotes and incidents that fuel the narrative of fragility attributed to her. But, but, but… despite all that: she’s gaining ground in the polls. And she’s gaining ground faster than anyone else.
Let’s keep in mind, then, what should be more than obvious by now: the digital street is in a state of permanent outrage. Social media, fueled by the hate algorithm (and designed to promote it), measures emotions, not decisions. It’s no wonder, then, that negative narratives spread faster than any serious proposal to get the country moving again.
Nor is it surprising, then, that the most criticized candidate is also the most supported.
The contrast, in any case, raises an uncomfortable question: What good is a country that talks so much… if it decides in silence? And another, inevitable one: How much does the digital noise resemble the actual vote? Probably less and less.
It’s not that a poll “beats” social listening. It’s that each captures different perspectives on the same landscape. What’s striking is that neither is capturing enthusiasm, hope, or clarity. Only noise on one side and resignation on the other.
So, Costa Rica enters the second week of December like someone entering a familiar house at an odd hour: feeling their way along the walls in the dark, careful not to knock anything over so as not to wake anyone. And between sighs, the occasional shiver.
For now, the numbers are clear: propelled by a president who seems more like a candidate, the ruling party is gaining strength and aiming to avoid a penalty shootout. On the other side, the opposition, which continues to advance aimlessly, is running out of time. Caught in the middle, the undecided voters, little by little—and with little enthusiasm—are beginning to make up their minds.
But four out of ten are still thinking about it. And there, dear subscribers, lies the key. Anyone who knows how to speak to that demographic will be able to pull off some impressive feats by proudly displaying the national flag next May.
Six weeks to go…
Translated and adapted from Delfino.cr