Q COSTARICA — With three weeks to the presidential elections, Laura Fernández, the candidate for Partido Pueblo Soberano (PPSO), is on track to win the presidency.
According to the polling firm CID Gallup, which revealed on Tuesday that the candidate has surpassed the 40% threshold for the first time in voting intentions, thus avoiding a runoff with the second-place candidate.
The polling firm gives the candidate 41% support, while her rivals trail far behind.
Furthermore, if those who said they are very likely to vote for Fernández are included, the candidate would reach 51% support.
Electoral law stipulates that to avoid a runoff two months after the election, at least one candidate must obtain more than 40% of the valid votes.
On the other hand, Álvaro Ramos, the presidential candidate for the Partido Liberacion Nacional (PLN), has only 9% of the vote intention, and Fabricio Alvarado, the perennial presidential candidate for the Nueva República, would garner 6% of the electorate’s support.
Finally, Ariel Robles, of the Frente Amplio, and Claudia Dobles, of the Coalición Agenda Ciudadana, each register 4%. The other candidates have 2% or less support.
The survey was conducted between December 29, 2025, and January 5, 2026, among 1,200 people, with a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points.
Furthermore, 63% of voters indicated that they were “very likely” to vote on February 1st; 12% indicated that it was “somewhat likely,” and 24% stated that it was “not very likely or not at all likely.”
Polls in presidential elections
Presidential election polls have become a regular part of the political scene in Costa Rica, giving a snapshot of who voters are leaning toward as the race unfolds. Essentially, polls try to capture public opinion at a specific moment by surveying a sample of likely voters about their preferred candidate.
Early polls often reflect the immediate reactions to big events, but those feelings can shift a lot by the time Election Day arrives. Things like scandals, debates (which Laura Fernandez is choosing to avoid in her campaign), or changes in the economy can turn the tide in ways that polls taken weeks earlier just can’t predict.
Back in 2022, Jose Maria Figueres Olsen, a well-known figure in Costa Rican politics, threw his hat in the ring aiming to guide the country through economic recovery and social progress.
Polls initially showed Figueres—a former president from 1994 to 1998—as the clear frontrunner. But despite his experience and strong name recognition, he ended up losing to Rodrigo Chaves.