Q COSTA RICA — The Costa Rican economy is projected to experience relative stability in the second half of 2026, although several risk factors could alter the outlook before the year’s end.
This is the main conclusion of an analysis conducted by the School of Administrative Sciences at the Universidad Estatal a Distancia (UNED) —National Distance Education University, which identifies the dollar exchange rate, interest rates, fuel prices, and inflation as the variables that will shape economic performance in the coming months.
The study, presented by the director of the UNED, Federico Quesada, indicates that the dollar could maintain a stable performance until October and even during the first days of November, thanks to the strengthening of the Central Bank of Costa Rica’s (BCCR) international monetary reserves, which currently stand at around 21 billion dollars.
According to the economist, this level of reserves has helped to cushion the pressure on the exchange market, even though the international price of oil has experienced significant increases during the year.
“The expectation is that the exchange rate will remain relatively stable between June and October. Subsequently, the seasonal inflow of foreign currency resulting from Christmas bonuses and other payments could generate additional downward pressure,” explained Quesada.
The behavior of international oil prices will continue to be one of the main risk factors for inflation and the cost of living in Costa Rica.
This forecast coincides with a scenario in which the demand for dollars remains contained, while the Central Bank maintains sufficient room to maneuver to address potential fluctuations in the foreign exchange market.
Another indicator that, according to UNED, is expected to remain stable is the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR). The analysis predicts that the Central Bank will maintain a strategy similar to that adopted by the U.S. Federal Reserve, keeping the MPR around 3.5%.
The specialist believes that only a significant increase in imported inflation would justify an additional adjustment, which would bring the rate up to 3.75%.
This stability in interest rates represents relief for households and businesses with loans in colones, as it reduces the likelihood of significant increases in loan payments in the coming months.
However, the report warns that inflation remains the main source of uncertainty.
Among the factors that could raise the cost of living is the El Niño phenomenon, due to its impact on agricultural production and electricity generation. Reduced food availability or higher energy costs would ultimately be passed on to the price of household goods.
Added to this is the possibility that discussions on new tax reforms to strengthen public finances will advance in the coming months.
Quesada warned that any increases in the Impuesto al Valor Agregado (IVA) —Value Added Tax— or the creation of new taxes on essential products would have a regressive effect, disproportionately impacting lower-income families.
“These types of measures would directly impact household consumption and also national production,” he stated.
Regarding fuel prices, the university believes the domestic market has already absorbed a significant portion of the increases seen in previous months, but clarifies that the situation continues to depend on the behavior of the international oil market.
The analysis notes that, although a temporary ceasefire agreement in the Middle East had generated expectations of lower crude oil prices, the resumption of hostilities has reintroduced uncertainty.
If international conflicts persist, the country could face further increases in hydrocarbon prices, which would affect transportation, industrial production, and food costs.
Regarding economic growth, UNED notes that the Central Bank maintains a 3.5% projection for 2026, although it believes there are factors that could limit this performance.
Among the issues mentioned are the damage caused by weather events to national infrastructure, potential impacts on crops, and a possible increase in international air transport costs, affecting tourist arrivals.
The report also draws attention to the fiscal situation. According to data cited by the economist, tax revenue accumulated a drop of nearly ¢62 billion (US$124 million) through May compared to the same period of the previous year, equivalent to a 2% decrease.
This reduction, it argues, limits the State’s capacity to execute public investment and develop projects related to employment, infrastructure, and productive activity.
Furthermore, it notes that various analysts believe the tax reform approved through the Law for Strengthening Public Finances is beginning to show signs of exhaustion, which has reignited the debate on new sources of revenue for the State.
Given this scenario, UNED recommends that families adopt a conservative financial approach in the coming months.
The specialist advises maintaining a savings fund equivalent to at least 25% of the family budget to cope with potential increases in fuel prices, inflation, or other unforeseen events stemming from the international context.
He also recommends avoiding high-risk investments and postponing major financial decisions until November, when there will be a clearer picture of the global economic outlook, oil prices, and the impact of climate change on Costa Rica.
Finally, Quesada urged authorities to carefully evaluate any proposals for new indirect taxes, considering that they could negatively impact economic recovery, employment, and household purchasing power.