Q24N — There is a growing possibility that a potential transitional government in Venezuela, or even the current factions vying for power, will initiate legal proceedings to recover the billions of dollars that Daniel Ortega managed with impunity.
It highlights how Venezuelan cooperation, initially touted as an engine of development for Nicaragua, ended up being channeled through private entities like Alba Petróleos de Nicaragua (ALBANISA) — a joint venture established in 2007 to manage investment funds derived from oil cooperation between Nicaragua and Venezuela — allowing the ruling family of co-peresidents Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo and their associates to consolidate an economic empire without accountability or state oversight.
Read more: Ortega no longer has fresh petrodollars from Venezuela. And now what?
Far from being a closed matter, it represents a critical vulnerability for the Sandinista regime. Experts argue that the legal framework of the oil agreements left enough financial traces for international bodies to track the destination of the “missing” funds.
In a scenario of geopolitical shifts, Nicaragua could face multimillion-dollar lawsuits that would not only compromise the presidential family’s assets abroad but also jeopardize the stability of public finances that have sustained the country’s patronage system.
Although the U.S. has been cautious about closing channels in the fight against drug trafficking, the strategy is changing: sanctions are no longer just against the institution but are now directed at key commanders.
In the short term, the murderous Nicaraguan army remains the pillar of the Ortega-Murillo regime, but its role has been reduced to political control and maintaining the stability of power, abandoning conventional external defense.
In the medium term, the risk is total isolation.
For the militaries of Central America, maintaining ties with the criminal Sandinista army already represents an “operational complication” and a high cost to their international image.