Q24N— The political landscape in Cuba is shifting, and the urgency in “El Carmen”, the private home of Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo, which is also used as a government headquarters, is palpable: seeing how Raúl Castro’s reign in Cuba is ending, Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo will try to convince Donald Trump that Nicaragua (they as a regime) does not represent a threat to the United States.
Analyst Carlos Díaz is emphatic:
“We know that Murillo lacks the art of negotiation; she acts on instinct. Ortega publicly feeds his supporters with anti-imperialist speeches, but behind the scenes, he humiliates himself.”
Meanwhile, the recent entry of several US food franchises—Starbucks, Wendy’s, and KFC—into the country raises the question: Is the Sandinista regime succeeding in convincing the US that everything is “normal”? An urgent analysis from another Nicaraguan analyst:
“La paix sans victoire” (Peace without victory): The danger for Nicaragua, a possible scenario described by a Nicaraguan analyst that could apply to Venezuela, Cuba, and, above all, Nicaragua.
According to the Nicaraguan analyst: We must be clear about something: It is one thing for Donald Trump to eliminate a threat against the United States and quite another for Nicaragua to be free. Trump is not the president of Nicaragua; he is the president of the U.S., and his priority is protecting his country.
If Ortega manages to convince Washington that he is no longer an urgent threat regarding migration, security, or his ties with Russia and China, the worst could happen: the Ortegas and Murillo could remain in the country.
Nicaragua will remain trapped.
Ortega’s gamble is to survive and buy time.
He only needs to survive a few months. To save his family and his fortune at the cost of betrayal and bloodshed, hoping that the situation will change, that the U.S. midterm elections will pass, or that other countries will capture attention so that Nicaragua falls back in the pecking order.
A “peace without victory” for Ortega.