QCOSTARICA – If you have debts in U.S. dollars, or are lucky enough to receive your income in that currency, know that for the last quarter of the year the dollar exchange rate is expected to shoot up to record figures.
The increase, which could be about ¢30 or more colones for one US dollar, will ultimately depend on whether or not the Central Bank intervenes in the foreign exchange market.
The rise in imports by companies for the Christmas season and a higher cost in transportation and the increase in fuels at the international level, are the seasonal reasons that explain the pressure on the exchange rate.
At the same time, the record of ¢636 at some bank on Tuesday (October 12), encourages people to purchase more dollars, which promotes speculation.
These movements are normal within a managed floating exchange rate scheme that the country has and cause the Central Bank to remain calm and not intervene.
“It is expected that during the fourth quarter a slight upward trend will continue and that will depend on the reactivation of tourism and exports, so the supply of dollars could increase and balance the rise in demand due to higher imports,” highlighted Roxana Morales, an economist at the Universidad Nacional (UNA).
Much will depend on the international prices rising a lot due to problems in supply chains, transportation costs, and the price of oil and gas.
Other more in-depth and less seasonal explanations that would be influencing the dollar exchange rate are the future expectations of interest rates worldwide, the advance over the course of the fiscal adjustment agenda agreed with the IMF and the economic policy that a new government will adopt, assured Alberto Franco, an economist at Ecoanálisis.
The dollar exchange reference rate this Wednesday morning set by the Central Bank is ¢623.91 for the buy and ¢631.67 for the sell. At the banks, such as the private BAC, the rate is ¢623 and 636; At Scotiabank it is ¢618 and ¢636.
At the state banks, the Banco de Costa Rica (BCR), the exchange rate this Wednesday morning is ¢622.50 for the buy and ¢636 for the sell; At the Banco Nacional de Costa Rica (BNCR), ¢621.50 and ¢635.
Click here for the latest “ventanilla” exchange rate published by the Central Bank.
So far this year, the dollar exchange rate has maintained an upward trend. Between January 1 and October 11 of this year, it increased ¢13.81 colones, which is equivalent to 2.15%.
The greatest acceleration of the currency occurred in the last two months.
This caused the Central Bank to intervene in early September, with US$1.4 million dollars.