QCOSTARICA – Experts from the Bolsa Nacional de Valores (BNV) – National Stock Exchange – are calling for ‘caution’ given the recent drop in the dollar exchange rate.
The latest reference rate set by the Banco Central de Costa Rica (BCCR) – Central Bank – on December 30, 2022, ¢594.17 for the buy and ¢601.99 for the sell, a drop of ¢23 in the last month and almost ¢100 since June.
BNV economist Daniela Andrade, emphasized the caution that those who have debts in dollars or receive their salary in that currency must take, taking volatility into account.
For his part, economist, Juan Pablo Arias, assured that 2023 will close with a level of inflation above 6%.
Meanwhile, experts from the Consejeros Económicos y Financieros (Cefsa) estimate that inflation will continue to be high, above the upper limit (4%) of the tolerance range determined by the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR), though are cautious to give a number.
As of last November, inflation experienced an interannual variation of 8.26%, according to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) published by the most recent Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos (INEC) – National Institute of Statistics and Censuses – survey.
According to El Financiero, 2023 will be a difficult year following a year (2022) with year-on-year inflation levels that had not been observed since 2009.
Cefsa expects the volatility of the exchange rate in 2023 to be less than that experienced during 2022, but the trend of the price of the dollar is uncertain in the sense that it will depend on which assumption or which scenarios materialize.
“We are already in a very different situation, we are in a situation where the supply of dollars seems to be greater than the demand, where there are elements that even seem that, depending on the assumption that one has, the exchange rate or it can remain relatively stable or with pressure to appreciate or with a slight devaluation (in 2023),” Daniel Ortiz, director of Cefsa, told Elfinancierocr.com.
“I believe, and this is personal, that today what we are seeing is more pressure towards stability or an appreciation. We are going to see an exchange rate that is going to be moving more towards the ¢600, than more towards the ¢700,” added Ortiz.
