Q24N — AFP — President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro faced off on Sunday in the first round of Brazil’s presidential election—a major leftist stronghold in a region experiencing a conservative wave.
At nearly 81 years old, the leftist Lula is seeking a fourth term and warns that Brazil’s sovereignty is at stake amidst pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump, who is expanding his sphere of influence in the region through right-wing governments in Argentina, Chile, and Peru.
Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, was named the candidate by his father, far-right former President Jair Bolsonaro, who was sentenced to 27 years in prison for attempting a coup d’état against Lula in 2022.
Many Brazilians lament having to choose from a familiar lineup of candidates and are opting for the one they dislike the least.
“I always voted for Lula. But when I arrived at the polling station, I changed my mind and voted for Bolsonaro. Just to see what happens,” said Oscarina de Oliveira, a 62-year-old elderly care worker in Rio de Janeiro.
The latest poll by the Datafolha institute predicted that neither candidate will secure more than 50% of the vote—the threshold needed to win on Sunday.
Polarization
Voters must choose between “strengthening the democratic regime or barbarism,” Lula said after casting his vote in the state of São Paulo.
In Rio, Flávio Bolsonaro declared that he would “liberate the Brazilian people,” asserting that Brazil “cannot endure any more suffering, such high taxes, or so many women dying.”
Lula draws his electoral support from the impoverished Northeast, as well as from low-income voters, Catholics, and women. “I want a Brazil with many rights—rights for the population, many human rights,” Thifany Simoes, a 23-year-old leftist who voted at the same polling station as Lula, told AFP.
Bolsonaro leads in the south, among the more affluent and evangelical voters.
“I voted for Flávio so I wouldn’t have to vote for Lula’s Workers’ Party,” which “was already in government for 20 years and did absolutely nothing,” said Raphael Machado, a 45-year-old lawyer in Brasília.
Some 160 million citizens were eligible to vote.
Polling stations closed at 5:00 p.m. local time, and the counting of votes from electronic ballot boxes began immediately.
The result of the voting was: 47.03% (56,104,503 votes) for Bolsonaro and 45.16% (53,879,538 votes) for Lula.
The second round will take place on October 25, 2026.
Continuity or change
So far, Trump has not explicitly endorsed Flávio Bolsonaro.
However, he has used tariffs and sanctions to pressure Brasília since his ally Jair Bolsonaro faced accusations of plotting a coup.
At Flávio Bolsonaro’s rallies, some supporters waved US flags and displayed images of Trump.
“I support Lula because he stands up for the poor,” said Victor Jorge Martins, a 25-year-old event planner who believes that “Flávio will sell Brazil to foreigners.”
In just a few months, the low-profile senator managed to close the gap with Lula in the polls, even after it was revealed he was under investigation for corruption regarding the financing of a biopic about his father.
He promised a tough stance on crime and insecurity, as well as fiscal austerity amidst rising public debt.
“We need a change. There are a lot of muggings where I work. Our safety is the most important thing,” said Babiliana Figueira, a 40-year-old firefighter and Bolsonaro supporter in Rio. “Someone who defends nature”
Lula, renowned for the social programs that lifted millions out of poverty in the early 2000s, returned to power in 2023 after having been imprisoned over a massive corruption scandal—convictions that were later annulled on procedural grounds.
Four years ago, he defeated Jair Bolsonaro by a margin of just 1.8 percentage points in a tumultuous election; weeks later, the situation spiraled into an assault on the seats of power in Brasília by Bolsonaro supporters.
During Lula’s third term, inflation has been kept in check and unemployment has fallen, yet Brazilians complain about the high cost of living and are weary of crime.
Deforestation in the Amazon has also been drastically reduced, although climate change was absent from the campaign—despite a surge in extreme weather events, such as droughts and floods, across the country.
“We Indigenous people suffer greatly from environmental impacts. That is why it is important to elect a candidate who defends our territory, who defends nature,” Tainara da Costa Cruz, a 22-year-old Indigenous woman from the Kambeba people living along the Rio Negro in Amazonas state, told AFP.