Q24N (Colombia) The U.S. dollar took a hit in Colombia on Thursday, July 30, dropping 73.89 pesos against the Representative Market Rate (TRM). This decline has some analysts wondering if the dollar might soon fall below the 3,000-peso mark, possibly within weeks or months.
According to Colombiaone.com, signs are pointing that way, especially after Thursday’s trading saw the dollar dip sharply, hitting intraday lows of 3,087 pesos.
By the end of the day, the dollar closed at 3,132.29 pesos, well below the TRM of 3,206.18 pesos. The trend over the past two months has been steadily downward, and it looks like it could keep sliding. For context, on June 1, the dollar was trading at 3,678.15 pesos.
If the peso slips below 3,000 in the next few days, Colombia would be stepping into territory it hasn’t seen since July 2019, right before the pandemic hit — back when the dollar hadn’t yet crossed that 3,000-peso mark.
Juan Pablo Vieira, an analyst at JP Tactical, shared his take with the financial paper Portafolio: “We’ve broken through the 3,200-peso support level. The market now faces a lot of room to fall.”
He added that over the coming months, the exchange rate could drift down toward the 3,000 to 2,800 peso range.
One big factor behind this shift is the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady between 3.50% and 3.75%. Markets had mostly expected this move, although it exposed some growing disagreements within the Fed itself.
But that’s not the whole story.
On the global stage, tensions between the U.S. and Iran are pushing oil prices up. This squeeze on crude oil supply is sending prices higher, which actually works in Colombia’s favor since it means more dollars coming in from exports.
Put simply, as Colombia earns more from oil exports, more U.S. dollars flow into the country. That extra supply of foreign currency pushes the dollar’s price down against the peso.
Some analysts don’t think the dollar will drop below 3,000 pesos anytime soon, but one thing’s clear: there’s no sign it’s going back up near 4,000 pesos in the short term.
Back in mid-2022, the dollar broke through the 4,000-peso mark in Colombia just before President Gustavo Petro took office. It stayed above that level for a few months, hitting a record high of 5,014 pesos on November 1 that year.