Q24N — Former U.S. mission chief to Nicaragua, Kevin O’Reilly, stated that political change in Nicaragua is inevitable and warned that Russia will not be able to indefinitely support the regime of Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo when it faces a new internal crisis.
He also noted that the administration of President Donald Trump represents a much more unpredictable scenario for the dictatorship and did not rule out the possibility that Washington might resort to extraordinary measures similar to those recently implemented in Venezuela.
During an interview with 100% Noticias, O’Reilly explained that Trump’s return to the White House has altered the geopolitical context upon which the Nicaraguan regime had built much of its international strategy.
According to the former diplomat, Ortega and Murillo have sought Moscow’s protection for decades, first under the Soviet Union and later under the Russian Federation. However, he asserted that this support does not constitute a permanent guarantee.
“It’s a leaky roof,” he said, using a term that, he explained, comes from a Russian idiom used to describe a protective or covering structure.
He recalled that other strategic allies of the Kremlin have experienced the limitations of this support.
He cited as examples the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria and the current situation facing Nicolás Maduro’s regime in Venezuela. Executive Power
“When the crisis hit, Russia simply watched the ally collapse without being able to effectively protect it,” he stated.
O’Reilly maintained that the relationship between Moscow and Managua primarily benefits Russian strategic interests and not Nicaragua’s development.
In his opinion, Russia is using Nicaragua as a platform to expand its political influence in the Western Hemisphere and to develop intelligence and disinformation operations.
“They are taking more advantage of Nicaragua than Nicaragua benefits from it,” he stated. He added that Russian assistance has primarily strengthened the regime’s intelligence, surveillance, and repression apparatus, rather than the well-being of the population.
The former U.S. official noted that China is also seeking to expand its presence in Nicaragua, although he considered Russia’s role to be much more decisive in matters of security and intelligence.
“Nicaragua’s economic stability depends much more on access to the US market than on Russia or any other ally,” he asserted.
O’Reilly Warns of Miscalculation Regarding Trump
One of O’Reilly’s central messages was directed at the regime’s inner circle, warning that it would be a mistake to assume the Trump administration would respond in the same way as previous governments.
Although he clarified that he is currently a private citizen and no longer participates in U.S. foreign policy decisions, he explained that the decision-making process in Washington has changed considerably.
According to him, strategic decisions are concentrated in a much smaller circle around President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
“If those in the dictatorship think they can simply put on a hard line indefinitely against my country’s current government, they may very well be miscalculating,” he warned.
He Doesn’t Rule Out an Action Similar to Venezuela
When asked about the possibility of the United States launching an operation similar to the one recently carried out in Venezuela to force opposition members out of power, O’Reilly avoided making predictions, but made it clear that he does not consider such a scenario impossible.
“It would be imprudent to think it’s not at least possible. It’s a factor to consider,” he responded when asked directly about potential extraordinary action by Washington regarding Nicaragua.
However, he insisted that he is no longer part of the U.S. government and is unaware of any decisions currently being considered within the Trump administration. Nicaragua News
A Call to Those Who Support the Regime
The former diplomat directed much of his reflection to military personnel, police officers, public officials, and political operatives who currently support the regime.
He suggested that many of them should start thinking about their future before an abrupt change occurs.
He recalled that when the Syrian government collapsed, Bashar al-Assad left the country with a small group of collaborators, while thousands of officials were left to their own devices.
“The advisors, the police, the intelligence… none of them.” Therefore, he suggested that those who are currently part of the state apparatus should consider a peaceful transition rather than waiting for a violent outcome.
Change Will Come
Although he avoided setting dates or making concrete predictions, O’Reilly insisted that political change in Nicaragua will eventually happen.
To illustrate this, he used a quote from the writer Ernest Hemingway. “Change comes slowly… and then suddenly,” he said.
In his view, the constant increase in repression demonstrates precisely that the regime governs from fear and not from strength.
He indicated that the closure of universities, the persecution of journalists, priests, pastors, lawyers, and other professional sectors reflects a system that tries to control more and more areas because it fears losing power.
“That is not sustainable. It is mediocrity,” he stated.
The former head of mission insisted that Nicaragua possesses sufficient human talent to rebuild itself, but considered it essential to begin debating now the principles that should govern a future democratic transition.
“The talent is there. I’ve seen it,” he said, recalling his years working in Managua.
O’Reilly also sent a message to both the opposition and those who remain in the country.
He believes that Nicaragua’s future must be built by Nicaraguans themselves and not depend exclusively on decisions made in Washington.
“The future of Nicaragua is in the hands of Nicaraguans,” he affirmed.
However, he maintained that the international community can play an important role in supporting a potential democratic transition.
Finally, he expressed his desire to one day return to a free Nicaragua.
“I hope I have the opportunity to return to a Nicaragua that breathes more freely,” he concluded.