QCOSTARICA – Costa Rica would be 72 days away from getting 80% of its population to be vaccinated with the complete scheme against the covid-19, if the current vaccination rate is maintained.
That would happen just before the end of this year.
The deadline a week ago was 101 days. This variation of 29 days less is due to the fact that in the last seven days, the Caja Costarricense de Seguro Social (CCSS) registered an increase of 26.5% in the number of doses applied. That number went from 160,796 to 203,356 weekly vaccinations. On average, 29,051 daily doses were administered between Tuesday, October 12 and Monday, October 18. A week earlier, the average was 22,971.
This is based on the countdown tool by La Nación which estimates how long it would take for Costa Rica to protect 80% of its population. For this, the need to apply the complete vaccination table to each person is considered.
This newspaper raised the threshold of the population that must be vaccinated from 70% to 80%, following the recommendation of the demographer and public health worker Luis Rosero Bixby, when considering the arrival of the delta variant of covid-19, which is much more contagious and could increase the number of hospitalizations and deaths, as has happened in other countries.
This calculation does not consider the “natural immunity” generated by the disease or the possible infections that may occur in people already inoculated. Nor does it include all Costa Ricans and residents vaccinated abroad, given that the Ministry of Health has weeks without revealing new figures.
Given the increase in transmissibility caused by the delta variant, it is now also calculated how long it will take for 85% and 90% of the population to be protected.
If we calculate the goal with 85%, with would be an additional 18 days; that is, it would take 90 days for the country to reach the goal. Under this scenario, the goal would be achieved in mid-January 2022.
If we estimate immunity at 90%, it would take another 18 days on top of the 90, to 108, which would be the beginning of February.
Country situation
The CCSS data, updated to this Monday, October 18, indicates that 2,527,143 individuals (48.9% of the population) already have the complete scheme with two doses. This is 131,314 more people than a week ago.
At this time, 3,597,302 individuals (69.7% of the population) have at least one dose. In total, the CCSS has injected 6,124,445 vaccines.
By age, the most advanced group is 58 years and over, since 92% of the targeted population already have both doses, while 2% are waiting to complete the scheme. The remaining 5.7% have not yet started their vaccination or did so outside the country.
In the 40-57 age group, 89% have at least one dose. While 72% already have both.
In the 20 to 39 age group, 83% have already received their first vaccine and 46% have the second.
Finally, in the 12 to 19 age group there are 64% of people who have already started their immunization. 27% have already completed it.
