Saturday, 4 July 2020

Daily COVID-19 cases could soar from 30 to 240, study reveals

If the curve does not go down, the country could enter into "community contagion"

(QCOSTARICA) If the country fails to curb the COVID-19 contagion curve, the number of cases will have an exponential increase that would make diagnoses go from 30 to 240 per day by the end of the month.

The evolution of the curve in Costa Rica.

This is revealed by an analysis of the Centro Centroamericano de Población de la Universidad de Costa Rica (UCR) – Central American Population Center of the University of Costa Rica, where it is explained that the number of infections that a sick person can cause has experienced an increase in recent weeks.

- paying the bills -

It is the R rate of reproduction of a pandemic, which is the average number of people that each infected person infects. “R” indicates by how much each generation of infected multiplies, that is, exponential growth.

On April 16, our country registered the lowest R value, it was barely 0.30, a range that could have “extinguished” the virus; however, as of June 4, the value of R was 1.88 and trending upward.

“This rate R = 1.88 is extremely worrying because it means a potential for doubling every 9 days in the number of people infected. In other words, the country could go from the current approximately 30 daily cases to 240 at the end of June, an amount that would overflow the system’s ability to locate contacts (about 5,000 laboratory tests would be required daily),” the UCR report cites.

Dr. Álvaro Avilés, head of Epidemiology at Hospital México, explained, with examples, what R is and what are the reasons why its value has grown.

- paying the bills -

He explained that this 1.88 puts us very close to “community contagion”, since the exponential increase in cases would make it impossible to trace contacts and the main concern is that health services are saturated and the system loses the ability to serve all severe and seriously ill.

Despite 1.88, the analysis recognizes that – so far – Costa Rica has managed to keep the pandemic “under control” and that there is scope to prevent the value of “R” from increasing, as long as people abide by sanitary measures. “But if they stay at those levels for several weeks, exponential growth will start to show and health services will overflow,” the document warns.

In mid-April, the country had the lowest R in Ibero-America, but after Easter, it started a growing curve and has caused Costa Rica to position itself as one of the countries where COVID-19 is the fastest spreading.

At the moment, and fortunately, Costa Rica has the lowest mortality rate in Latin America, with 2 accumulated deaths for every 100,000 older people.

"Rico" is the crazy mind behind the Q media websites, a series of online magazines where everything is Q! In these times of new normal, stay at home. Stay safe. Stay healthy.

Related Articles

Couple who lied about COVID-19 to hospital staff to be fined ¢2.2 Million

(QCOSTARICA) The Ministry of Health reported that it is in the...

COVID-19 Costa Rica: 288 new cases, health crisis looms

(QCOSTARICA) If in Costa Rica the measures of social distancing, hygiene,...


Retailers ask customers to wear face masks inside stores

(QCOSTARICA) The Costa Rican Chamber of Commerce is urging all customers visiting points of sale to wear face masks or face shields during their...

Covid-19 claims its 15th fatality in Costa Rica

(QCOSTARICA) Costa Rica recorded this morning the fifteenth death of a Covid-19 patient; a 48-year-old foreign woman who lived in the province of Heredia. Her...

The iPhone 12 arrives in September but without headphones or charger

(QCOSTARICA) Apple's new flagship, the Phone 12, is expected to arrive in September as usual, despite the Covid-19 pandemic. But it will not include EarPods...

Constitutional Court: “freedom of transit is not unlimited”

(QCOSTARICA) Once again, the Constitutional Court, also known as the Sala IV, rejected an appeal for protection against the sanitary vehicle restriction, endorsing the...

BAC layoffs 373, closing 11 branches and 79,789 credit card accounts

(QCOSTARICA) BAC Credomatic announced this Thursday, July 2, the layoff of 373 employees, the closing of 11 branches or points of service and will...

Restrictions leave US travelers high and dry

(CNN) — In downtown Buffalo, New York, crossing the border into Ontario, Canada, used to be as easy as driving one mile across the...

Let's Keep This Going!

To be updated with all the latest news and information about Costa Rica and Latin America.