QCOSTARICA – In the money market, the greater abundance of dollars has already begun to be perceived, which generally occurs at the end of each year and that traditionally brings down the exchange rate.
This Thursday, November 25, the price of the dollar had a significant drop in the Monex market, ¢6.05, accumulating a ¢14.16 from November 11.
The purchase reference exchange rate for today, Friday, November 26, is ¢628.59 for the buy and the sell ¢633.91.
From November 12 to November 26, the reduction in the exchange rate has been ¢10.75 for the buy and ¢11.22 for the sell.
Private market with more currencies
In November, financial institutions buy up more dollars than they are selling.
In October, they acquired US$87 million more from the public than the dollars they sold, and in the first 19 days of November, the surplus was US$217 million.
The entities carry almost all of this surplus to Monex. The Central Bank also participates in this market, either directly intervening with the purchase or sale of dollars or negotiating the needs of the public sector. For example, if a public entity requires dollars, the Bank sells it from its reserves and then gradually buys it from Monex to avoid abrupt changes in the currency.
Economists Vidal Villalobos and Norberto Zúñiga agree that the price of the dollar will continue to decline for a few more weeks, in line with what has happened in other years.
“We are already beginning to see foreign currency sales to meet year-end payments by entrepreneurs, the more the exchange rate falls, the more sales are going to take place to take advantage of the current higher levels, that is why we are seeing large volumes in the Monex, of up to US$38 million per day, with very high items, of up to US$1 million,” said Villalobos.
“In addition, we wait for the liquidation of the coffee harvest, and for the transnationals to bring in dollars to pay the Aguinaldos,” added Villlalobos.
Zúñiga, for his part, explained that, in accordance with past experience and seasonality studies, the downward trend is likely to continue for about three more weeks.
“How much more and how far will the exchange rate fall? It will basically depend on the intervention policy defined by the Central Bank and not on the market,” said the economist, indicating that international monetary reserves, which are the resources to face external conditions, are at low levels compared to recent years (US$6.76 billion as of November 23, about 10.4% of production).
“The Central Bank will have to define what level of international monetary reserves is appropriate, especially to face the greater uncertainty related to the electoral period and the eventual breach of the agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF),” commented the economist.
“For this, it will have to evaluate and quantify the purchases of foreign currency in the private market, with the demands of the public sector for the oil bill, debt maturities and some capital outflow due to the low interest rates in colones,” Zúñiga added.
