QCOSTARICA – Although the growth trend of diagnoses by Covid-19 indicates that the country could add at least 15,000 more cases in the next two weeks, it is very likely that it is already at the peak of the pandemic, according to an epidemiological report from the Center for Development Observatory Research of the University of Costa Rica (UCR).
Likewise, after this increase, between July 8 and 10, a decrease will begin, the report indicates.
According to the UCR report, the reproduction or contagion rate (R) is 1.15, meaning that 100 people could infect 115. This indicator has been declining for about 16 continuous days, which could show signs of stabilization towards the reference value of one, explained Agustín Gómez, coordinator of the report.
“This could indicate that during this week the peak of the pandemic could be reached and a possible decrease in the number of cases could begin. Changes in sanitary measures, specifically the use of the mask, must be taken into consideration as a factor that for the data for the week of May 24 could potentiate the wave and generate a type of plateau.
“In other words, a reference point will be reached and average daily cases between 1,900 and 2,200 can be presented for at least two more weeks,” Gomez stressed.
In its most recent report released Thursday, the Universidad Hispanoamericana (UH), pegs the contagion rate at 1.17, dropping slightly from last week when it was 1.21. However, this is still at high levels and that is why the numbers are increasing.
Ideally, this indicator should be less than 1, because that means that it is decreasing, the infection will spread only slowly, and it will eventually die out.
The trend of the last seven weeks (starting on April 6), growth in the country went from 3,549 cases for the week to 13,505 cases, which represents an increase of 381%, which has been more constant since May 4.
To date, the country has accumulated a total of 44,896 cases, since the fifth wave began, and the average number of cases per day is 1,151, with a record of 130 deaths.
According to the latest report by the Ministry of Health, dated May 24, the country has accumulated a total of 789,130 cases since the first case back in March 2020 and 8,495 deaths.
