(QCOSTARICA) The “Pico” (peak) of positive cases COVI-19 of the pandemic “second wave” could occur within a week.
That is the estimation from Observatorio del Desarrollo (OdD) of the University of Costa Rica (UCR) after analyzing the epidemiological data released by the Ministry of Health on June 16.
Agustín Gómez, researcher at the OdD, explained in the Enfoques Program, that based on the 1,796 accumulated cases of Sars-CoV-2, the “peak” of infections would be a maximum of 78 new daily diagnoses.
But, if we go back to June 10, when 86 new cases were reported in a single day, the mathematical and trend protections revealed that the “peak” of the second wave would not be until August but with a maximum of 1,165 cases.
The Observatorio insists that its estimations are “snaps” of the moment. Gómez explained that the restrictive measures directly affect trends and that it is evident that the second wave is with much more force, reflecting this, is that the number of recoveries is less than that of active infections.
“The success of complying with these measures (health and social) will depend on how much we pay attention. (…) The models have the particularity that the health measures taken today will be reflected in seven days,” Gomez added.
Demographer Luis Rosero said that “the reopening will increase the risk that this will rise, that contagion will occur. It is likely that there are asymptomatic people who have not been detected by the health system and who can infect others on a bus or a mall, for example. Now, it has been seen in other countries that shutting down the economy may be overrated. (…) At this time and in my opinion, these measures to close the economy to control the pandemic is like ‘killing a fly with a shotgun’; yes, we are going to kill it but it is excessive. Many countries have shown that the situation can be controlled without reaching those extremes of paralyzing the economy,” he said.
On June 8, the Minister of Health, Daniel Salas, announced that the country was “entering” the second wave.
So far, hospitalizations, a key factor, have remained slow and stable. On Wednesday, 22 of the 960 active cases were in hospital, of which 3 are in intensive care.
Also, the number of deaths to COVID-19 in Costa Rica has remained low: 12 deaths (9 men and 3 women), the last death occurring on June 10.
The Minister of Health stresses there is still no community contagion in Costa Rica.